In the latest release of its North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT Research Co. forecasts that demand for new medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles will be “off around 45% for the full year 2009 and remain at weak levels through the first half of 2010.”

ACT projects that Class 8 truck production will show “only modest improvement through the first half of next year before rebounding in the second half.” Class 4-7 trucks are “expected to take a similar trend, although not as strong” as that to be experienced on the heavy-duty end.

“The combination of overcapacity and slim profits in trucking will be enough to keep many companies on the sidelines for the next several quarters,” said Kenny Vieth, partner & senior analyst with ACT Research. “However, an aging fleet and pent-up replacement demand will begin to positively influence orders in the second half of 2010.”