LAS VEGAS. Motor carriers and supplier executives from across the U.S. and Canada who gathered here this week for the 72nd annual convention of the Truckload Carriers Association shared stories, mourned industry losses and expressed a cautious optimism that the worst is over and better economic times are ahead.

There was solid evidence to support that optimism, too, from attendees and guest speakers who each carefully weighed the gains made against the work left to be done.

Many carriers reported increases in freight levels, suppliers counted improved order backlogs, and new products and services were unveiled that helped to signal that trucking is preparing for a rebound sooner rather than later.

During one session, chief economist and co-founder of Moody’s Economy.com Mark Zandi gave even more tangible shape to the flickering spirit of optimism in his presentation “Economic Boom or Bust…Your Roadmap Back to Profit.”

“The economy is better today than it was a year ago, and next year it will be even better,” Zandi said. “We are headed in the right direction.”

Zandi made four key points:

• The ‘Great Recession’ is over.
• Recovery is fragile, however.
• It is important for policy makers to remain aggressive.
• Federal support does come at a cost – increases in the deficit.

According to Zandi, the recession ended in August 2009, leaving the U.S. with a gross domestic product (GDP) down some 4% from its peak and 225,000 fewer people working in the trucking industry. “This January, however, we actually saw some job growth,” he noted. “In trucking, tonnage is picking up. Current growth is about eight percent, which is actually quite strong. By this time next year, banks will be lending more to businesses and consumers again.

“In my mind, there is no co-incidence that recovery began when federal stimulus [spending] was at its peak,” he added. “Unemployment benefits have been critical, housing tax credits and cash for clunkers [also made a positive impact]. The global economy has turned the corner, especially in Asia, where China, not the U.S., is leading the way out of the recession. China has helped to support our export growth.”

As evidence of the fragility of the recovery thus far, however, Zandi cited several factors, including that hiring remains dormant even though layoffs are abating and the foreclosure crisis continues to mount as well. “Smaller businesses are not hiring because they are not getting credit yet,” he noted, “and small business accounts for half of all jobs in the economy.”

According to Zandi, businesses are suffering from a lack of confidence due to the fact that mission-critical policies are still being debated in Congress, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty. “People also suffered through near-death experiences in their businesses,” he observed. “They were scared to death just a year ago and you don’t forget that soon.”