The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association is the national trade association for companies that make tires in the U.S. Their members include names like Bridgestone, Continental, Goodyear, Michelin, Toyo, and Yokohama, so they are a reliable source for assessing the state of the tire industry. Recent data from USTMA projected a 9.1% increase in original equipment truck tire shipments for 2022 when compared to 2021 and a 15.3% increase in replacement truck tires for the same period. Last year was a big year for truck tire manufacturers.
Based on that data alone, one might think that prospects for the truck tire industry in 2023 are promising. On the original equipment side, the news is not as optimistic for nonvocational Class 8 tractors with a forecasted double-digit drop in demand for 2023. With the highest average trade cycle in a decade, more fleets are gambling on aging equipment given the current economic uncertainty and looming recession. The news is better for the trailer market with a sizable increase in trailer orders projected for 2023, but the same trend of an increasing average trade cycle will result in a much older fleet moving forward.
See also: Time to bust tire inflation-pressure myths
Replacement truck tire sales have a completely different outlook with a stronger degree of uncertainty. First, the aging fleet will result in higher demand, which puts additional stress on a supply chain that is already strained. Stronger-than-anticipated original equipment sales can impact back orders for major brands and models in certain sizes so projections for 2023 should be more favorable for the replacement steer and drive tire markets while trailer tire supplies may be tighter in certain fitments.
The “good” news is that the Pacific Ocean parking lots outside of the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, are gone, and containers of import truck tires are not expected to sit on the water for weeks at a time this year. As it stands today, there should be no major shortages in the most popular sizes, but limited availability of specific brands and models in certain sizes likely will continue.
On the other hand, all signs for truck tire retreading are pointing upward. Last year was a banner year for retreads for several reasons. Simple economics were a major driver with multiple price increases that made the price point of a retread even more attractive when compared to a new tire. The economic and environmental benefits of retreading have never been more important. It takes less oil and less energy to produce a retread while the performance is on par with a new tire if it’s a quality casing. Technology in modern retread plants is capable of inspecting, building, and curing every retread with unmatched precision. There are only a handful of situations where retreads are not a reliable and safe option for fleets.
Most industries are experiencing labor shortages, and the truck tire industry is no exception. OEMs are still recovering from the shutdown at the workforce perspective, which influences supply. Commercial tire dealers and retreaders are experiencing the same problems for different reasons. The pandemic did not have much of an effect on labor since they were deemed essential and never stopped working. However, truck tire service and retreading are average-paying, dirty, physical jobs with almost no mass appeal. Labor has always been and will continue to be a struggle.
See also: How tire monitoring cuts roadside calls and improves TCO
Mistakes will be costly. Fleets need quality in-house maintenance technicians or reliable truck tire service partners to ensure tires are properly installed and inflated. When rising tire prices combine with poor maintenance, cost per mile is going to suffer. Low tire inflation pressure has a direct effect on MPGs and, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration, diesel averaged $4.998 a gallon last year. At fleets, the loss in fuel mileage gets added to the unexpected expense of premature tire replacement.
Barring major economic or environmental catastrophes, truck tires and retreads will be enough in supply to keep freight moving throughout 2023. More price increases should be expected as inflation adds to raw materials and operating costs, so fleets need to squeeze every mile out of every tire or casing. The formula is simple, but execution will become even more important in the months ahead.
Kevin Rohlwing is the SVP of training for the Tire Industry Association. He has more than 39 years of experience in the tire industry and has created programs to help train more than 180,000 technicians.
