While no one knows for sure what will happen in the future, it doesn’t hurt to have experts offer their opinion. After talking about current economic conditions, Sarah House, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, shared her thoughts about the economy as we head into 2019.
Speaking at the recent NationaLease sales meeting, House says that she expects GDP growth of about 3% throughout the balance of 2018 and into 2019. Consumer spending will remain solid and there will be a strengthening of private and public investment.
When it comes to employment, the combination of solid job growth and a dwindling supply of workers is putting upward pressure on wages and other non-wage costs.
Other items of note:
- Tax changes have provided some support for corporate profits, capital investments and consumer spending.
- The budget deal to boost government investment through 2019, but fading stimulus could mean trouble in 2020.
- Rising input costs and the ability to pass them on are keeping inflation at the Fed’s target level.
- The Fed fund rate is likely to rise to 3.25%.
- Interest rates are rising amid tighter Fed policy and greater treasury issuance, but the yield curve is not expected to invert.
House spent some time talking about risks that bear watching. “A full-blown trade war could send interest rates even higher and weaken household wealth and exports,” she said. In addition, leverage has risen across the public and private sectors, which could turn problematic with rates moving up again.
Her forecast calls for US GDP to grow by 2.8% in 2019, but only 2.2% in 2020 while global GDP will be up 3.7% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020.
No one knows with 100% certainty what will happen in the economy, but if you haven’t been paying attention to key economic indicators, now might be a good time to start.
