Voters are returning former President Donald Trump to the White House after a sweeping electoral win, which makes him the second president in U.S. history to be re-elected after a loss.
The transportation industry could change once Trump steps into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025. The Republican president’s administration will have significant control over federal agency rulemaking and international trade. Republicans also gained control of the Senate and, while vote counts are not yet finalized, gained a seat in the House.
Trump plans to loosen environmental regulations and raise tariffs. These moves could slow down trucking electrification and boost continental freight movement, respectively. For fleets, that means lower operational costs and an indirect increase in freight volumes.
See also: Fleets Explained: Emissions regulations
Weaker environmental rules for trucks
Trump’s administration will have opportunities to weaken Biden-era emissions regulations.
The first Trump administration rolled back significant environmental regulations. During that first term, he notably weakened vehicle emissions standards and clean energy rules and combatted California’s vehicle emissions regulations.
After the first Trump term, the Biden administration introduced significant new emissions standards, including the contentious third-phase heavy-duty greenhouse gas emissions standards (GHG3), which received overwhelming trucking industry criticism.
The next president will likely cut environmental regulations again. Trump has already suggested that he will roll back Biden-era environmental policies.
For trucking, the result could be lower equipment costs. Emissions standards benefit overall public and environmental health but also raise the operational costs of fleets. The Clean Freight Coalition, an industry group critical of GHG3, estimates the heavy-duty regulation could cost as much as $1 trillion.
The American Trucking Associations supports the measure. In a public statement this morning, ATA president and CEO Chris Spear congratulated Trump on the victory and stressed the importance of rolling back emissions standards.
"President Trump made trucking a priority throughout his first term and partnered with us to enact policies that strengthened the supply chain, grew the economy, and delivered for all Americans," Spear said. "His second term offers an historic opportunity to build upon that record and show why the best approach to governing is one paved by common sense. That begins by replacing EPA's electric-truck rule with national emission standards that are technologically achievable and account for the operational realities of our essential industry."
The Truckload Carriers Association also congratulated Trump on the victory.
"Our nation has spoken, and TCA congratulates our 47th President Donald J Trump on his decisive victory in the general election," TCA said this morning. "As an association, we look forward to working with his administration and the next Congress to advance the priorities that our truckload membership has identified important to keeping America moving."
The momentum of trucking’s electrification won’t simply cease to exist, however. OEMs have already made major strides in electrification and some, such as Volvo, see electrification as an important pathway regardless of U.S. regulations. Five of the seven major over-the-road truck OEMs are part of European-based global companies that have committed to the Paris Climate Accords, and all have shared goals to become carbon-neutral in North America by 2040.
If the administration manages to roll back EPA regulations but not to weaken California's emissions authority, states could still have the option to adopt California Air Resources Board regulations, such as Advanced Clean Trucks.
Michael Young, Daimler Truck North America product marketing manager, told Bulk Transporter last month that the results are unpredictable.
“Should the Administration change, we’re likely to see changes on the 2027 [EPA and GHG emissions] rules, and some of those impacts, and frankly, some of them are needed," Young said. "But if we do see the Administration change, we could also see more states rushing to adopt some of the different [ACT, ACF] rules. So, what route is better is a toss-up.”
Depending on how Trump’s administration approaches the issue, these rollbacks could still face fierce resistance in the courts or Congress.
Significant tariffs to boost freight
Trump said he will implement massive taxes on imports.
On the campaign trail, Trump suggested a 10-20% tariff on all imported goods, a 60+% tariff on imports from China, and a 100% tariff on cars from Mexico.
Some of those tariffs are unrealistic, but exactly which of Trump’s tariff promises will take effect is unclear. The limit of a president’s tariff authority is fuzzy; lawsuits and Congressional action will likely try to set the boundaries of unprecedented tariffs.
For trucking, the result will be, eventually, higher freight volumes. Tariffs aggravate inflation and bring little immediate economic benefit. However, tariffs also foster nearshoring and domestic production. Truck traffic across the U.S.-Mexico border reached all-time records in October, due in part to tariffs.
