As recession concerns rise, driver shortage figures stall

SAN DIEGO—The driver shortage is easing a bit from the record high a year ago, a trend that could continue during a mild recession in 2023 before doubling over the next decade, according to Bob Costello, American Trucking Associations' chief economist.

Rising pay and good publicity have helped the trucking industry bring in new drivers, Costello told fleet executives gathered here for ATA's Management Conference & Exhibition. He estimates the industry is short about 78,000 drivers—less than the revised 81,258 worker shortage in 2021. "So it's down a little bit—but still the second highest level we've ever seen," he said.

ATA calculates the shortage estimates by determining the difference between the number of drivers currently in the market and the optimal number based on freight demand. Costello's forecast anticipates a 64,000 driver shortage in 2023 and a new record high of more than 82,000 in 2024.

"If we have a mild recession, a little bit softer freight, that's going to be a fair amount of it," Costello said of his forecasted dip. "But in the second half of the year, hopefully building up into 2024, I think things will be better, and you see it jump to 82,000."

And it keeps going up from there. Costello warned that current driver demographic trends and projected freight demand growth could cause the driver shortage to top 160,000 over the next decade.

To keep up with demand, the industry must hire nearly 1.2 million new drivers over the next decade to replace those leaving trucking either through retirement or for other reasons, according to ATA estimates.

How a recession could affect truck driver shortage

"I do believe that the global economy and the U.S. economy are going into a recession in the early half of next year," said Tom Joyce, managing director at MUFG Bank. "I do believe that Europe and the U.K. are going into a recession right now in Q4 as we speak. But one thing to emphasize, recessions are reasonably rare events; the United States has only had 12 of them since World War II."

See also: Private fleets are growing to combat capacity constraints

He said global recessions are even rarer than U.S. recessions. "We've only had six global recessions since World War II," Joyce said. "And I do believe that we are going into another one here—a mild one for the global economy and mild one, we hope, for the United States, and a deeper one for Europe and the U.K."

Costello noted that the industry added about 30,000 drivers over the past year. Along with rising pay, trucking has garnered more positive attention across the country over the past couple of years, which might have helped curtail the workforce shortage. "However, that influx is still not enough to make a substantive difference in the shortage—particularly in the long-haul, for-hire truckload sector, the part of the industry most acutely impacted by the shortage," Costello said. 

While driver pay has gone up 8.1% on average since 2018, there is also evidence that that has led drivers to work less. "Because I really do think we've never seen a period before where quality of life is more important to the driver," he explained." I suspect you see that in your fleets."

What's causing the driver shortage?

He said several factors are causing the shortage, such as the older average age of current drivers, leading to more retirements. Other characteristics of trucking workforce deficiency include: 

• Women make up just 8% of all drivers, well below their representation in the total U.S. workforce of 47%.
• The inability of some would-be and current drivers to pass drug tests.
• Other entry barriers include minimum driving age, driving history, and criminal background.
• Lifestyle disadvantages, especially in the long-haul market, with more time away from home. 
• Infrastructure and other issues, including limited truck parking spots, which cause drivers to stop driving earlier than they need to so they can get a spot for the night. 
• Traffic congestion also limits drivers' ability to safely and efficiently make deliveries.