People get pretty excited when a new product or technology is introduced to a market. There is a tendency to see only the good in the product or technology and think that it is the ultimate solution to the problem. Think of this as the rainbows and unicorn stage of product acceptance. During this time, we overlook or downplay the negative characteristics of something while highlighting its good attributes.
As the product or technology gains a bigger foothold, some of the shininess wears off, and we become more realistic about what the product or technology really can do. This is often referred to as the valley of disillusionment.
That's where I think we are when it comes to scaling battery-electric trucks. We are starting to see that hard work is involved in moving from one or two battery-electric vehicles to 10, 15, 20, or more. There is no denying that this is true. As fleet managers add more BEVs to their operations, things get complicated around getting those trucks charged economically and efficiently.
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In addition, fleets have to work with various partners—some of whom they have never worked with before. And we all know that the initial stages of a new relationship can be awkward and even uncomfortable as the parties involved figure out how to work together for everyone's benefit.
Fortunately, today some fleets are pushing through the awkwardness and facing the unanticipated stumbling blocks that are popping up in their efforts to electrify their operations.
We all should be grateful for these pioneering fleets that are willing to do the hard work of scaling electric trucks today because they are learning the right way and the wrong way to manage these deployments. The rest of the industry will be able to benefit from what they have learned so that subsequent large-scale BEV deployments will go more smoothly.
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Now that I think about it, maybe "valley of disillusionment" is the wrong term to describe where we are today with BEVs. I'm not sure what the right term is, and I would be interested in hearing your suggestions on what we call this time. However, I do know it is a time of great opportunity and growth, and that brings with it some rainbows and unicorns.
Michael Roeth has worked in the commercial vehicle industry for nearly 30 years, most recently as executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE). He serves on the second National Academy of Sciences Committee on Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and has held various positions in engineering, quality, sales, and plant management with Navistar and Behr/Cummins.
