Back in 2019, when we at NACFE published our report, Viable Class 7/8 Electric, Hybrid, And Alternative Fuel Tractors, we defined the time between 2022 and 2040 as the “messy middle.” We saw the messy middle as a bridge between the present and the zero-emission future—although we did not call it that back then. The messy middle, according to the infographic we developed to explain it, would provide fleets with multiple choices of fuel, and we would begin working on fueling infrastructure for alternative fueled vehicles.
At first, some people were reluctant to use the term messy middle because they thought it had negative connotations. The NACFE team never saw the messy middle as negative, but we did see it as challenging as fleets tried to sift through solutions to find the one that is right for them. But more recently, we have heard many key industry players using the term in formal presentations and press conferences.
See also: The 'messy middle' isn't bad
Today, nearly three years later, I need to tell you that I think we have moved from the messy middle to the messier middle with even more fuel choices and powertrain options than we had identified back in 2019. Back then, we thought in the early part of the messy middle, we would see CNG/LNG, hybrid diesel-electric, and advanced diesel. The middle part, we expected to see renewable CNG/diesel and the next generation of battery-electric and fuel cell electric vehicles, and closer to the end of the messy middle, we expected to see mature battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles begin to dominate.
In some ways our predictions were right, but in other ways we missed some things—hence the messier middle. Some of the things we did not foresee were truck engines running on hydrogen, dual fuels with hydrogen and diesel, and natural gas hybrids and repowering existing vehicles to become alternative fueled vehicles.
A lot of companies are working to make their solutions the “forever” one as we move to zero-emissions, but for now it is too soon to tell who the winners will be. It is likely that we will see a variety of technologies scale in applications where they make sense, but then sunset as newer options become available.
See also: All medium-duty trucks are electrifiable, but not all will be easy
The messier middle can be a confusing place for fleets as they try to evaluate all the options available and look for the right one. The reality is that at this point, there is no one right solution for every application, but rather solutions that make sense for some duty cycles but not others. Fleet managers may need to adjust their mindsets and look at a variety of solutions for different segments of their fleets. Manufacturers also need to be thinking about lower volumes should their solutions not dominate and prepare business plans for various scenarios.
Some fleets are worried about picking the wrong solution and so are sitting on the sidelines. Others are jumping in and selecting a technology with the assumption that it will take them to the future and that they won't need to make another technology decision for years. Both of these choices miss the mark. Fleets need to start testing some of these technologies today so that all of us can learn which technologies work in which applications and they need to be prepared to use these technologies for a relatively short period of time as we work to the zero-emissions future somewhere in the 2040 timeframe.
NACFE is here to help fleets navigate through the messier middle, and to that end, we will be updating our messy middle documentation to include the choices available to fleets. We will continue to work with fleets to determine the right technology solution for each of their applications. While the messier middle has a plethora of solutions, it does not have one that is right for everyone.
Michael Roeth has worked in the commercial vehicle industry for nearly 30 years, most recently as executive director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency. He serves on the second National Academy of Sciences Committee on Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles and has held various positions in engineering, quality, sales, and plant management with Navistar and Behr/Cummins.
