Diesel average dips, but more price hikes may be brewing amid shortage concerns

The national average for diesel fuel remains over $5.30 per gallon, though it dipped slightly—2 cents—for the week of Nov. 14, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This means that the fuel remains stubbornly expensive, as in $1.579 a gallon pricier than this time last year.

But could the U.S. average go higher and perhaps approach this June's per-gallon record of $5.81? Experts think a new irritant—not the fighting in Russia, not surging demand, and not rising oil prices but a diesel shortage—could send the price of trucking’s main fuel toward those heights.

See also: Diesel prices static as supply concerns emerge

EIA reported that, as of Oct. 14, the U.S. had 25.4 days of distillate supplies (diesel is one along with jet fuel and home heating oil) left, sparking fears of a supply crunch. That outlook has improved only slightly more recently to 26 days of supply, around the lowest since 2008.

Might this period now be the calm before the coming storm?

The U.S. diesel average only registered a slight increase last week, 1.6 cents, according to EIA. Motor club AAA saw only a 2.1-cent increase in diesel over last week, though its national average is almost $5.36 per gallon, or slightly more than EIA.

The fuel was flat or up only slightly elsewhere: up a fraction of a penny to $5.474 on the East Coast (where supply is nevertheless constricted) and up half a penny on the West Coast to $5.769 but 6.3 cents higher to $5.40 per gallon in the Rocky Mountain region.

Gasoline followed a similar trajectory as diesel for the week of Nov. 14, according to EIA. Gas fell 3.4 cents to $3.762, or about $1.55 per gallon cheaper than diesel. Gasoline also was down in every region of the U.S. except the East Coast.