Diesel prices still dropping, avg. $3.76/gal, gas up to $3.484/gal

The U.S. Energy Information Administration found diesel fuel prices still sliding downward in almost every region of the country the week of July 29. Analysts see a strong potential for prices to remain flat heading into autumn.

Currently, the national average for U.S. on-highway diesel fuel prices is $3.768 per gallon, down 1 cent from last week and 35 cents from this time last year.

All but one U.S. region that EIA tracks also saw price drops of less than a cent to 4 cents, with the Gulf Coast as the only exception. This region saw their prices jump less than a cent to $3.468. The West Coast without California also saw a minimal drop in their prices at less than a cent, just barely reaching $3.968 per gallon. Similarly, the Midwest’s costs fell less than a cent to $3.727. Barely pushing beyond that amount, the Rocky Mountain region’s diesel costs fell 1 cent to $3.718, while the East Coast’s and West Coast’s diesel costs fell two cents to $3.844 and $4.370 per gallon, respectively.

California benefitted from the largest significant drop at 4 cents, even though it is still the most expensive place to buy diesel at $4.831. The Gulf Coast is also still the cheapest place for diesel fuel at $3.468 per gallon.

The AAA motor club logged its current diesel average at $3.810 per gallon, 5 cents more expensive than the EIA’s numbers. Its diesel price tracking also dropped by 1 cent from last week and is 19 cents cheaper than this time last year.

This generally flat diesel rate is to be expected during the summer months, according to Matt Muenster, chief economist for Breakthrough.

“But then there's an opportunity, as summer moves on and gives way toward autumn, for there to be diesel price pressure reentering the market,” Muenster cautioned. “The reason for that is we'll continue to have reasonably high crude oil demand from August into September. And at the same time, we're going to see the level of freight shipments out in the market pick up as well as agricultural production around September and October, ending in November.”

See also: Diesel prices below April levels, gas under $3.50

The impact of crude oil costs on diesel prices is reflected in the percentage it encompasses in diesel prices. The EIA recently released its price breakdown for June 2024, assuming a retail price of $3.72/gal. In June, the cost of crude oil comprised 51% of the retail price of diesel at $1.90, up 1% from May. The refining percentage also rose 1% to 48 cents per gallon, while the allotment for distribution and marketing dropped 3% to 74 cents. Finally, the cost set aside for taxes remained the same at 16% of $3.72, or 59 cents.

Gas prices, while generally flat, waver

This week’s gas price changes saw more variability than diesel’s. Nationwide, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $3.484, up 1 cent from last week but down 27 cents from this time last year. Across the country, prices shifted from less than a cent up to 5 cents.

In particular, gas prices rose in the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain regions. The Midwest’s gas costs climbed 5 cents to $3.476 per gallon, the Gulf Coast’s costs went up 4 cents to $3.094, and the Rocky Mountain area saw a price hike of 7 cents to $3.395 per gallon.

On the other hand, gas prices dropped by 1 cent along the East Coast to $3.395, while the West Coast saw an even larger dip of 3 cents to $4.106, and California alone a whole 5 cents to $4.370. This price change wasn’t enough to stop California from being the most expensive area to buy gas, and the Gulf Coast is still the cheapest place for fuel at $3.094 per gallon.

To compare, AAA’s gas price average is currently $3.505 per gallon, up .005 cents from last week but about a quarter lower than last year’s price of $3.746. The motor club hypothesized that the Midwest’s gas prices could be suffering due to weather.

“Some of the uptick in gasoline prices may be due to a reported storm-related outage at the ExxonMobil refinery in Joliet, Illinois. That’s contributing to higher pump prices in the upper Midwest,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson. “Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen quite a bit lately. In April, a barrel of oil was in the upper $80s, but today, it is $10 a barrel cheaper. That might mitigate any upward pressure on pump prices.”