INDIANAPOLIS—Uncertainty. It’s a word that dominated headlines and conversation since the start of this decade. With a new administration, alternative fuel roadblocks to overcome, and new industry technologies released, the uncertainty surrounding the trucking and fleet world is enough to overwhelm the best of us.
Fortunately, the ones who focus on preparation instead of prediction will be able to adapt to change more easily, as Ford’s Chief Futurist Jen Brace said in her keynote at the NTEA Green Truck Summit here in Indianapolis.
Those who adequately prepare are often the ones who think like futurists.
Watch for industry outliers
What is your initial reaction when presented with a new technology? Brace used Uber as an example. While the company disrupted the taxi industry, she admitted she initially thought the ridesharing concept was “crazy.”
“I was one of those people that was like, ‘Really? You want me to get into the back seat of a stranger's car? Gross. Weird.’” Brace said.
It’s those initial reactions and doubts we have with disruptive technology that Brace said are the very reactions that industry leaders should challenge.
“You have to squash that voice when you are thinking like a futurist,” Brace said, “because when you're thinking like a futurist, you need to watch for outliers.”
Industry outliers are often those ideas that seem too good to be true, that challenge the status quo, and, while sometimes appear impossible, are the ones that drive change.
And while Brace said that not all the outliers become industry staples, “some of them become very disruptive.”
Instead of immediately dismissing an outlier the next time you recognize it, give it some thought. Consider whether it could make an impact on the industry if it were to become an industry norm. Futurists think this way with the intent to explore all their opportunities and “keep their brain open to the different signals that might pop up—even if they make you uncomfortable,” Brace said.
See also: Trucking braces for Trump tariff impacts
Balance provocation with plausibility
Thoughts about the future should be a bit “provocative,” Brace explained, because the future will look and feel differently than it does today.
Trends can help guide this provocative way of thinking because trends can help marry what’s possible with what’s desirable. Brace and her team track trends using S.T.E.E.P. categories.
Brace and her team classify S.T.E.E.P. categories as social, technological, economic, environmental, and political. It’s by design that the team—all working for one of the world’s most successful automotive manufacturers—leaves industry trends out of its trend categories.
“We want to pay attention to all of the things that are happening outside of the industry that might impact the external environment that we are operating within, or the expectations of the customers that we are serving,” Brace explained.
Examples of these trends are an aging population, the rise of the average retirement age, the prevalence of extreme weather events, and the popularity of connected technology.
Each of these trends can affect the trucking and fleet industries. An aging population changes society’s overall needs and behaviors. A rise in the average age of retirement indicates an aging workforce, which could impact a company’s decision to implement technology. The increase of extreme weather events impacts physical workplaces, forcing companies to consider investing in facility upgrades that can withstand an extreme weather event.
Finally, the prevalence of connected technology is perhaps one of the most influential trends affecting the trucking and fleet world today. Brace said there has been a 40% growth in commercial vehicles connected to the Ford Pro platform since 2023 alone.
Balancing the provocative with the plausible also requires thinking about the uncertainties.
“Right now, there's lots of uncertainty ... as we look at what's happening within regulations, within the government,” Brace said. “These are excellent examples of uncertainties that we need to pay attention to because the truth is [that] any of these can change the environment that we are operating within, whether we like it or not. We typically don't have control over these, but we're going to have to react to them.”
Prepare for uncertainties by identifying them and making a plan for a positive outcome as well as a negative outcome. An example of an uncertainty that Brace offered was the cost of energy.
Consider that a fleet owner’s future plan includes a prediction that the cost of energy will decrease. Signpost events for that fleet owner to look for will be increased energy supply, new technology, a change in regulation, and decreased demand. If these signpost events take place, the fleet owner can safely proceed with their plan.
However, with uncertainties, it’s important to look for signpost events that might contradict the initial prediction. These negative signpost events might be an interrupted supply of energy, inflation, a change in regulation, and increased demand. If these signpost events take place, that would indicate that the fleet owner’s initial plans should be modified.
See also: Analysts expect rate upturn within months
Imagine multiple versions of the future
Preparation for the unpredictable future happens when fleet owners plan for the future—well, multiple futures. They can do this by combining trends and uncertainties to create a plan.
At Ford, Brace and her team combine key trends they’re seeing with key uncertainties and plan for multiple outcomes. Brace said this strategy can be used to stress test current company plans with “multiple versions of the future” to identify blind spots or holes.
This strategy “lets you get ahead of the game, lets you start planning today,” Brace said. And even if those multiple futures never become a reality, at least different plans were discussed, which could perhaps be used as a solution to another problem down the road.
When future-proofing your fleet and your business, above all else, Brace emphasized the need to prepare rather than try to predict—especially in this decade of seemingly never-ending uncertainty.
