Despite a sluggish freight economy in 2023, over-the-road trucking fleets opened 2024 in a buying mood, according to the latest data from two leading commercial vehicle research firms.
FTR reported that January Class 8 preliminary in North America came in at 26,400 units, up 2% from December and up 35% year-over-year. ACT Research’s preliminary data showed 27,000 orders, up 600 units from December and 45% year-over-year.
“Weak freight and carrier profitability fundamentals, and large carriers guiding to lower capex in 2024, would imply some pressure in the North American Class 8 market’s largest segment, U.S. tractor,” Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst, said. “While we do not yet have the underlying detail for January orders, Class 8 demand continuing at high levels at the start of 2024 suggests that over-the-road US truckers are still buying.”
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Seasonal adjustments pushed ACT’s January numbers up 11% to a 12-month seasonally adjusted annual rate of 292,000. FTR’s 12-month figures total 259,000 Class 8 orders. The firm noted that the heavy-duty truck market has been picking up in recent months: orders from the last three months would equate to a 354,000-unit annualized rate; the previous six months would be a 327,000-unit annualized rate.
“Build slots continue to be filled at a healthy rate,” FTR Chairman Eric Starks said. “With January orders coming in at a rate that was comparable to the previous month, the market is still performing at a high level historically. It was a mixed market for OEMs this month, with some seeing increases and others seeing decreases in orders. Fleets continue to be willing to order new equipment despite uncertainty in the freight market. Order levels were above the historical average and above seasonal trends, although we still expect 2024 activity to reflect replacement demand.”
2024 medium-duty outlook
ACT also reported that seasonably adjusted North American Class 5 through Class 7 net orders increased the year from 20,300 units in December to 20,800 in January, according to ACT’s State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles report.
“Unlike Class 8, medium-duty seasonality is modestly positive in January, boosting the seasonally adjusted order tally to 20,800 units, down 21% month-over-month from a tough best-month-of-2023 December comp.”
Both firms noted that these preliminary figures for January would be finalized later in February.
