To prebuy or not to prebuy. That is the big trucking question.

So far, Cummins is the only engine maker to talk openly about how it plans to meet the new requirements with its X15 engine platform. The global power manufacturer's leaders did so first at a media briefing in August.  

Cummins redesigned the pistons and the fuel pump, along with other other modifications. It added a true DOHC cylinder head design with variable valve timing capability (cylinder deactivation is not planned for MY2027). The company has also modified the aftertreatment system to include higher DEF dosing rates, additional catalyst volume, and an electrically powered 5-kW heater (along with the requisite 48-volt alternator and battery bank) to maintain optimum catalyst temperatures during all duty cycles. 

See also: What's new in Cummins' next diesel X15 engine

None of the others offered any specifics, short of saying they are working on their aftertreatment systems.  

"While we cannot comment on specifics around our product strategy toward the EPA 2027 requirements, as you’ve seen with our CARB-compliant 2024 engine, there will be enhancements to the exhaust aftertreatment system and within the engine itself," a Volvo Trucks North America representative said. "As we’ve said, these regulations are extremely stringent, so it will take working within many areas to achieve compliance." 

Daimler Truck North America offered these remarks: "DTNA is prepared to meet 2027 emission regulations with a comprehensive propulsion line-up. At DTNA, we are committed to continued investment in clean diesel solutions that offer reduced emissions and improved fuel economy for our customers." 

International Motors was a bit more forthcoming: "The International S13 Integrated Powertrain will mainly remain the same through the 2027 emissions rollout. However, rather than having to add components to reach the NOx requirements, International will remove components and reduce complexity, which, in turn, drives uptime for our customers ... ." 

What are fleets to make of the fact that with a little more than a year to go before the MY2027 trucks hit the streets, the OEMs won't discuss product strategy or share pricing details?  

This lack of transparency is keeping Bruce Stockton awake at night. He's currently chief operating officer at Wilson Logistics and still works with other fleets as a consultant under the banner, Stockton Solutions.   

"We've not been given a clear explanation of how they're going to meet the '27 standards," Stockton told FleetOwner. "We're worried about the unknown. Even though Cummins is touting that they have their solution—and they've been pretty transparent about it—we haven't heard about anybody really running it yet, even in field tests. Maybe a few of the big guys are. I don't know. 

"All that silence kind of leads us to think that maybe they're all hoping after the election there will be some retraction of these standards. I don't personally believe that will happen because it's never happened in the past," he added. 

Stockton said that prior to the rollout of the MY2007 trucks, with their then-new DPFs, his fleet had 2007 engines in two trucks as early as 2004.  

"It seemed then that the OEMs were working in partnership with the fleets to try to build confidence in that solution. We don't see that at all today," he said. 

The coming prebuy 

If not knowing what's coming emissions-wise isn't disconcerting enough, nobody is sure how much more these new models are going to cost. It certainly won't be the paltry 2-3% year-over-year increases fleets are used to.  

Back in July at a media briefing at its New River Valley assembly plant, Magnus Koeck, Volvo Trucks North America's VP of strategy, marketing, and brand management, hinted the increase would be steep indeed.  

“A new Class 8 truck for 2027 will cost $20,000 more than a comparable model does today,” he told journalists. “That’s why we expect a massive prebuy in 2026. We see signs it has already begun." 

Stockton said he's been told to expect a 3% jump early in 2025 as the MY 2026 trucks start rolling out, but the big hit will come between MY '26 and '27. 

"They're telling us they're taking part of the increase in calendar year '25 for the '26 model year—they're taking about a 3.5% increase where they'd normally take a 2%," he said. "But the big hit for '27, I'm still hearing, could be as much as $30,000."  

Darry Stuart, president of DWS Fleet Management Services, said he's been hearing about increases in the $30,000 to $40,000 range for at least one OEM that opted not to share pricing details with us. 

Another expert, a sales manager at a Chicago-area dealer who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to comment publicly, said the increase would be north of $20,000. 

"There's really no formal figure right now, but I imagine we're all going to be around 30 grand," he said.  

"I think the major prebuy won't start until probably April or May of next year, after all the trade shows are done, and the fleets have talked with the reps one on one. From there, they'll have seven or eight months to order trucks, and that's it," he added. 

The good news is there are plenty of build slots open right now, so it's a great time to get your MY2026 orders in. The bad news is the combination of high interest rates and low freight rates make this a lousy time to be taking on more debt. 

"Seeing rates from 5.5% to 6.7% of late pushes the monthly cost of owning a truck from $3,000 per month to $3,600," Stockton said. "On the other hand, consider what we're facing with the MY2027s."

See also: Prebuy or face the consequences 

Strategies for getting over the hump 

Stockton and Stuart see the next four years as tricky to navigate, and strategies for dodging the coming bullets will vary with the current average of the fleet.  

"Fleets with a young average age, like Wilson's 14-month average age, are in good shape. Fleets with 24- to 36-month average ages or greater will find it difficult to absorb the additional maintenance costs once their fleets are out of warranty," Stockton said. "Young fleets can make it through 2026 and 2027 and probably start buying again in late 2027, getting back on a more regular cycle in 2028, 2029, and 2030 before the next round of emissions rules kicks in. Middle-aged (34 months) or older-aged (48 months) fleets are likely where we'll see the capacity reduction and shrinkage come from."  

Stuart says fleets not in an ideal position to prebuy should stay the maintenance course and don't let anything slip by. 

"I think that some fleets are holding for more reasons than 2027. Business is not that good, costs are climbing, and rates are squeezing down," he said. "My advice to them is to stay the normal course with caution. Maintenance magic will prevail as it always has, but be prepared for the hockey-stick rise in cost as we extend vehicle life."  

The magnitude of the anticipated price hike is so enormous that it's hard for some to comprehend. The sales manager told FleetOwner the minimum price on a sleeper truck order from his company would be in the $185K-$190K range.  

"Over time, including two model-year changes (2026 and 2027), we'll be up maybe $35,000 from current pricing," he said. "The customers don't believe it. The big fleets and the private fleets understand, but the small to midsized fleets do not believe me when I share that.  

"I think the major fleets, once they see this, are going to be ordering most of the trucks. I think the owner-operator to small businesses that don't believe me, they're going to be left out," he continued.

See also: Prebuy strategies need a data-driven balancing act

There are still so many questions surrounding the MY2027 trucks that fleets are reluctant to be the first ones on the block to own one. Will the technology work? Will it be reliable? What will it do to your operating and maintenance costs? These remain unanswered as the door to order a pre-2027 model begins to swing shut.  

"Customers are still learning about how the regulations will impact their purchases, so we continue to work with them to make sure both dealers and customers are aware and understand upcoming regulations and determine how to best plan their upcoming truck purchases," Mack Trucks said in an emailed statement.  

We'll know more about the OEM plans by spring, but by then the order boards will already be filling up. In a good year, about 300,000 trucks can be produced. That means a good number of people will be left on the sidelines.  

Now might be a good time to stock up on coffee, too.