Despite a dip in November, Class 8 orders have been strong the last three months and trucking industry data cruncher ACT Research sees that trend continuing, leading to bigger backlogs, higher production of heavy-duty trucks, and more certainty and visibility for OEMs and suppliers well into the new year.
ACT reported Dec. 12 that it sees “robust” pent-up demand at the end of this year coupled with an anticipated surge in Class 8 orders. Preliminary ACT numbers from November show they decreased to 33,000 units, but the research firm's final October numbers were 42,500 units, and September's orders rose to above 53,000, the most for any month ever.
See also: November Class 8 orders fall well below two prior months
ACT made its latest forecast for the heavy-truck market via the latest release of its North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, which examines the next one to five years and gives OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investors a barometer of Class 8 market comings and goings and provides an overview of the North American markets as well as current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, according to a release from ACT.
“In line with expectations, the industry has witnessed a surge of Class 8 orders into year-end. The resulting growth in order backlogs supports higher production and gives OEMs and suppliers good visibility through” the first half of 2023, said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
Vieth added: “With strong demand in place and inflation metrics moderating, we are now more convinced that first-half build rates will be sustained deeper into [the second half of 2023]. The more hopeful view on inflation leads us to modestly raise our 2023 Class 8 build expectations.”
He said ACT also has “tempered the severity of the decline we anticipate in freight activity in 2023. To be clear, we continue to expect a macro recession, and a slight [year-over-year] decline in Class 8 build, but recent economic reports and still strong Class 8 fundamentals have us thinking in a more encouraging direction.”
See also: Trailer demand breaking through higher interest rates, weaker economy
ACT and another industry data aggregator, FTR Transportation Intelligence, emphasized the encouraging Class 8 order and production news when they released their November truck order reports last week. FTR noted that while November orders were down, they were still 254% ahead of orders a year ago for the same month.
“Orders may have declined over the last two months, but compared to last year’s weak results, they are showing tremendous gains,” a Dec. 5 FTR release stated.
“OEMs having opened their order boards for 2023 more broadly, and ongoing pent-up demand—with tailwinds from strong carrier profitability and elevated fleet age—is proving resilient,” Eric Crawford, VP and senior analyst at ACT Research, said in ACT’s own Dec. 5 release on November orders.
