3 ways a Republican sweep could change the trucking industry

While the president has the most control over federal agencies, Congress has the most control over tax policy. Retaking the Senate and gaining seats in the House empowers Republican lawmakers to implement business-friendly tax practices.

Corporate income tax

Federal corporate tax rates hit a historic low after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, falling from 35% to 21%. Republicans largely supported the legislation.

The conservative party is likely to continue pursuing corporate tax cuts. Trump’s campaign once suggested a tax rate as low as 15% for some unspecified groups.

A lower corporate income tax rate directly translates to greater income for carriers.

Truck sales tax

ATA supports the tax reform—including the removal of the federal excise tax on trucks.

"With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire next year, ATA stands ready to work across the aisle on Capitol Hill to achieve pro-growth tax reform, including repealing the century-old, punitive federal excise tax on heavy-duty trucks and trailers that penalizes our industry for investing in newer, cleaner, and safer equipment,” Spear said.

The federal excise tax on trucks adds a 12% tax on most new heavy-duty truck purchases. The tax has been in place since 1917. Groups like the American Truck Dealers are also critical of the tax.

“The 12% FET is outdated and needs to be eliminated once and for all!” Scott McCandless, ATD’s chairman, said on Capitol Hill in 2022.

A lower excise tax means more affordable equipment for fleets.

However, the boons of possible business tax cuts bring up an important threat: national debt. Republicans’ tax policies are projected to increase national debt growth, which could reduce business investment and slow overall economic growth. For effective policy, lawmakers would need to balance tax cuts with federal budget cuts and alternative revenue streams.

Smaller chance for speed limiter mandates

Speed limiter mandates are much less likely under a Republican president and Congress.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has worked on a speed limiter mandate for eight years without a final rule. The agency made little progress on the mandate under the first Trump administration and frequently postponed its timeline for the mandate since 2016. Another Trump-era FMCSA is unlikely to implement a commercial vehicle speed limiter mandate.

A Republican Congress would oppose speed limiter requirements. House Republicans earlier this year proposed to prohibit speed limiter mandates in a Congressional spending bill. Republicans in 2023 also introduced the DRIVE Act to Congress, legislation that would explicitly prohibit FMCSA heavy-duty speed limiter mandates. As a senator, J.D. Vance cosponsored the DRIVE Act.

Trucking industry groups have nuanced stances on speed limiters. ATA only recently began to support limiters with a max speed around 65-70 MPH. The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association criticized limiter mandates and called them unsafe for their potential to increase vehicle interactions.

"OOIDA and the 150,000 small business truckers we represent congratulate Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on their resounding victory,” OOIDA president Todd Spencer said. “We look forward to working with the Trump Administration and congressional allies to advance a pro-trucker agenda, which includes expanding truck parking, stopping unworkable environmental mandates, and preventing a dangerous speed limiter mandate."

The question of speed limiter use outside of FMCSA is also an important component in industry groups’ disagreement over independent contractor rules.

Weaker emissions rules

The trucking industry is deeply critical of the Biden administration’s federal emissions regulations, as well as the California Air Resources Board’s state-level emissions standards. A Trump administration will have significant influence over emissions rules.

Compared to Democrats, Republicans are generally critical of environmental rules. Trump will likely weaken EPA emissions regulations and could halt the renewal CARB waivers.

ATA’s Spear said that the Trump administration has an opportunity to continue its legacy “by replacing EPA's electric-truck rule with national emission standards that are technologically achievable and account for the operational realities of our essential industry.”

OOIDA's Spencer also said that he looks forward to working with the Trump administration in “stopping unworkable environmental mandates.”

While not exactly an electric-truck rule, EPA’s latest major truck emissions rule—GHG3—has received widespread criticisms from trucking organizations. The rule’s stringent emissions limits through 2032 bring an unprecedented incentive for OEM production of EVs and cleaner combustion technology. Industry experts expect GHG3 to raise the cost of new equipment, while some estimate the cost of electrifying trucking to total $1 trillion.

Some organizations vested in the EV space are still optimistic about the future of heavy-duty EVs—including Greenlane, a California-based joint venture—started by Daimler Trucks North America—working to build charging infrastructure for heavy-duty EVs.

“As the industry continues to evolve, we remain confident that our mission to build a nationwide network of commercial EV charging requires a unified effort—one that transcends political divides,” Patrick Macdonald-King, Greenlane’s CEO, said. “Regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds power, collaboration and support from the federal government, along with public and private partnerships, are crucial to making this vision a reality.”