While for-hire trucking markets saw an initial boost after President Donald Trump began his dance with various, erratic tariff implementations, it could set up the North American trucking market and the global economy for a let-down later this year, industry researchers warn.
ACT Research recently downgraded its 2025 Class 8 build forecast by nearly 35,000 units after a sluggish first quarter driven by economic and regulatory uncertainty that saw truck buyers more cautious than analysts expected at the start of the year.
“The president is introducing policies that we believe will negatively impact not just the U.S., but North American and global economies, as he upends a system of global trade that has been 80 years in the making,” ACT Research President Ken Vieth told FleetOwner on April 15. “That upending is expected to lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, and ultimately, a loss of U.S. status in the global economy. Coupled with presidential flip-flopping, Trump’s policies have introduced considerable risk and uncertainty into business planning.”
For-hire spot market rates are increasing this year, signaling the end of the prolonged freight recession that plagued smaller carriers the past couple of years. However, recent surges in freight movement could be due to companies trying to get ahead of Trump’s tariff policies by moving goods into the U.S. in anticipation of future demand.
Trump’s on-again-off-again import taxes and rising trade tension with China likely led to early April boosts in the spot market, according to data from FTR Transportation Intelligence and DAT Freight & Analytics. But these short-term gains could just be that: short-term, according to Vieth.
“While we are not calling for a recession, the past few months have seen our expectations for U.S. GDP fall from over 2% to just under 1%, extending freight market weakness deeper into the year,” he said on Tuesday. “From 20% at the beginning of the year, ACT’s economics team now pegs the probability of a U.S. recession beginning in 2025 at 45%. Previous expectations for Canadian and Mexican economic growth in 2025 have also been sharply reduced.”
Along with economic uncertainty, Vieth said that the Trump administration’s deregulation push also creates uncertainty. Before Trump returned to office, the industry expected fleets to begin EPA ’27 pre-buy activity by the end of this year to get ahead of regulatory requirements that were expected to drive up equipment costs by at least $30,000.
After Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin laid out his plan to go after Clean Air Act regulations, such as trucking’s Greenhouse Gas Phase 3, heavy-duty NOx, and more, it appears that truck buyers don’t feel the push to get ahead of regulations that might not be enforced.
“Taken as a whole, in April we reduced our 2025 forecast for North American Class 8 production to 255,100 units, down from 289,000 units in our March forecasting cycle.”
