Nobody wants to be average. Yet we spend much time focused on averages: average freight rates, average safety scores, average fuel prices, and stock market indexes. Are you average? Is your company average? Are your challenges average? Do your customers and colleagues think you’re average?
“We can all calculate average this or average that. But what is average?” Ken Vieth asked from the ACT Research Market Vitals seminar stage in late February. “That means you got somebody up here doing this, and you got somebody down here doing that. There’s almost always opportunity to improve, to do better, to go after whoever it is that is up here—even in an uncertain and volatile marketplace.”
Five years ago this month, we were coming to terms with an unknown, unprecedented global pandemic that created all sorts of trucking opportunities amid chaos. As dust gathers on those boxes of personal protective equipment, we face new uncertainties over lagging freight rates, rising equipment prices, potentially supply-chain-bending tariffs, and rewritten regulations that many have been designing business plans around since before most of us knew what PPE stood for.
Change creates chaos. President Donald Trump has returned to the White House determined to change America. There’s no telling what Trump 2.0 could do to the averages. (Analysts at ACT Research’s seminar spent time considering this.)
See also: How Duffy’s DOT is already reshaping trucking
Over the coming months, there will be chaos and new opportunities that could define your operations. Do you want to be above or below the trend lines that define 2025? Here are 10 factors that might help your operations be above average—if you can take advantage.
- Market volatility: As Vieth pointed out, even when the overall market struggles, some companies are outperforming. Consider different market segments, services, or needs you can fill.
- Capacity shifts: Tim Denoyer, ACT Research VP and senior analyst, was the first to document how much private fleets were eating into traditional for-hire carrier freight after the pandemic boom. Those private fleets that built out in-house freight networks during the supply chain crunch were rewarded. During a FleetOwner Market Pulse interview, Denoyer told me that traditional trucking companies have opportunities to regain market share as private fleets slow equipment purchases.
- Used trucks: If Trump tariffs increase new-truck costs—ACT warns prices could rise 8% to 10%—that will also drive up used-truck demand and prices, according to Steve Tam, ACT VP and analyst. Import taxes coupled with looming EPA ‘27 price increases create opportunities for fleets, dealers, auctioneers, and truck traders.
- Regulatory changes: As Trump’s EPA and DOT look at dismantling and delaying various regulations, it could give manufacturers more time to prove what alternative fuels, such as natural gas, could work if EVs continue not to be an all-encompassing solution, ACT Research analyst Lydia Vieth told me during another Market Pulse interview.
- Infrastructure development: With more time for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers to develop future powertrains, energy providers could use this window to take early leads in alternative fuels, charging networks, and maintenance systems.
- Innovation: Challenging times can create innovation opportunities. Use lulls to improve operational efficiencies, explore new technologies, develop innovative services, or solve problems.
- Procurement: With potential tariffs driving up truck prices, discuss long-term and short-term order opportunities with your dealers.
- Consolidation: This isn’t your older brother’s freight market. So much has changed in the past five years that we can’t expect things to return to what they were before the pandemic. Look for opportunities to acquire struggling competitors and expand into new segments or geographic markets. The following freight boom could be around the corner.
- Supply chains are still shifting: Nearshoring and reshoring are still occurring. Tariffs and tariff threats accelerate this. In the long run, today’s pain could be setting up future gains. You can find ways to be part of and ready for these shifts.
- Data is vital: Identifying trends early will better position you over competitors, optimize operations, and help you find market opportunities and investments. Transportation data analytics keeps getting better. If you aren’t using it to improve your operations, your competitors are.
We all face challenges and various forms of chaos from near and far. Cutting through the confusion and uncertainty will keep you above average.
