Navigating economic uncertainty: How tariffs and political changes impact the transportation industry in 2025

What’s your tariff temperature?

April 8, 2025

Trucking and supplier executives are mixed on how the global Trump tariffs will impact U.S. transportation businesses.

It’s been years since we’ve all experienced a few normal years in America. From rising political divisions to pandemics to freight recessions, the past decade has felt anything but stable. Since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, few business leaders have felt any of the economic steadiness that defined most of his first term.

The election created immediate hope and promise of a pro-business administration coming into power as a prolonged freight recession ends. Instead, we’ve been plagued with uncertainty and this will-he-or-won’t-he-impose-tariffs drama.

By the time we print and mail this issue, the president might change his mind again. But April greeted us with new fears of overall economic recession thanks to sweeping worldwide tariffs on nearly every country, threatening to upend global trading markets with trickle-down impacts on U.S. supply chains.

The Trump administration spent days following the April 2 tariff announcements insisting that these tariffs are here to stay and will eventually lead to renewed American prosperity of the 19th century in the 21st. It will take years to know the impacts of these decisions.

How do you feel today about tomorrow?

In a snap poll FleetOwner ran online the weekend after Trump announced the global import duties—that he said would lead to reinvestments in U.S. manufacturing—more than half of transportation industry respondents said they expect the trade taxes to impact their business negatively; 30% said they expect positive impacts.

A third of respondents said they expect the tariffs to drive up raw material costs; 29% believe tariffs will create more domestic trucking demand. While 13% said they don’t expect tariffs to drive up operating costs, 35% believe their costs will go up by 11% or more.

Here are some comments from readers (identified by industry segment), edited for clarity, about how they think the tariffs will impact our industry.

“Costs are going to increase across the board. Domestic suppliers will increase prices whether their costs go up or not. Interest rates and costs will increase, so fleets will hold off on purchasing new equipment. It will take three to five years for Trump’s plan to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and in that time we very well could have a significant recession.” —supplier

“The immediacy of this action is irrational, and business CANNOT react this quickly without significant consequences.” —supplier

“It’s a disaster. My 401k got destroyed. It’s a tax, and it’s recessionary. We may get lower interest rates, but that will be because everyone will be out of work. Higher costs of goods, inflation, unemployment, bankruptcy.” —truckload carrier

“I think it’s a kick-ass plan to reshape our trading partnerships.” —manufacturer

“Tariffs have never been a long-term solution, and in a world with supply chains as global as they are, it is only going to cause economic turmoil. Most of my business is tied to auto manufacturing and construction, two industries that are going to be hit the hardest. —truckload carrier

“I think the tariffs are a positive move for the U.S. They are long overdue. Any impact they may have should be short-term but worth it. I love how the left is blowing this out of proportion but did nothing to the cost of eggs, gas, and the ever-increasing inflation.” —pickup/delivery

“It is terrible.” —LTL carrier

“I have heard for years about the unfair trade practices of foreign countries. It put domestic manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage. The president is trying to address this issue. In the long run, I think it will benefit the country and my company.” —truckload carrier

“He’s an idiot. Every word that comes out of his mouth is a lie. He’s surrounded himself with idiots. He’s ruining the economy here at home and alienating our allies around the world.” —truckload carrier

About the Author

Josh Fisher | Editor-in-Chief

Editor-in-Chief Josh Fisher has been with FleetOwner since 2017. He covers everything from modern fleet management to operational efficiency, artificial intelligence, autonomous trucking, alternative fuels and powertrains, regulations, and emerging transportation technology. Based in Maryland, he writes the Lane Shift Ahead column about the changing North American transportation landscape.