Predicting the future has long been considered nothing more than guesswork, educated or otherwise. And whether it involves pundits with advanced degrees or tarot cards, we’ve learned to approach predictions with a healthy skepticism. Now, however, it looks like trucking at least will have to put aside that distrust and begin peering into the future for its next major leap forward.
I’m talking about prognostics, the ability to accurately foresee an impending equipment failure, which will allow truck users to intervene and avoid that failure. With prognostics serving as the foundation, this retooled fortune telling will also extend to predictive analytics, which is the ability to see future driver and operational issues that can be avoided through carefully targeted management responses.
Today we’re right on the edge of true prognostics with some truck makers offering what I’d call proactive diagnostics, or what researcher Frost & Sullivan characterizes as “basic prognostics” in a new study it’s about to release. Sensors and onboard processors monitor vehicle condition in real-time, sending any fault codes and other relevant data to a central repository where technicians can remotely diagnose the issue and advise both fleet and driver whether it needs to be addressed immediately or can wait. If the truck requires immediate attention, they can identify and notify the nearest shops with the right parts on hand, shortening any disruption to customer service.
The value of even this basic prognostics is substantial. Frost & Sullivan reports that one large pilot test cut diagnostic time by 71% and average repair time by 25%. Another manufacturer’s system is reducing repair times by half, while a third told the researchers its ability to predict breakdowns and proactively manage repairs was cutting downtime for some from seven days to 18 hours.
True or advanced prognostics would require limited or no human intervention. According to the new study, benefits would bring substantial improvements in fleet efficiency with more uptime, lower maintenance costs by eliminating unnecessary preventive routines, and when combined with driver monitoring, offer potentially major improvements in safety.
It’s little wonder then that Frost & Sullivan predicts 100% of all North American and European OEMs will be offering prognostics by 2020, generating over $200 million in revenues for truck makers and telematics providers. And trucking, which became the first commercial user of wireless data over 25 years ago, will be one of the largest business users of telematics, accounting for over 7% of that industry’s total telematics.
North American fleets will lead the charge, with just under 40% adopting prognostics by 2020, the study predicts. Combined with “big data” developments already underway, prognostics will also drive new predictive analytics that bring yet more productivity, according to Frost & Sullivan. And fleets over 100 trucks will “emerge as early adopters and also prime movers,” they say.
Which brings us to the major barrier still to be overcome before we reach this age of practical fortune telling. Key data to drive prognostic and predictive analysis is considered proprietary by vehicle and component manufacturers. Open access and standardization will need to be addressed so fleets—especially those running a mix of truck brands—can reap the full value of any new investments in this new technology. My crystal ball tells me that market pressures bring about that standardization soon.
